LONG TERM FORECAST OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ESTIMATION FOR ACTIVE POWER DEMAND: A CASE STUDY OF BAUCHI, NIGERIA

Abstract

Accurate forecast of electricity consumption is important for utility companies because it determines the
dynamics and characteristics of future construction of power facilities. Forecasting electricity is vital for power
generation companies. It has many applications, including energy production scheduling, maintenance and operation of
electric network, elaborate accurate investment and development plans for transmission and distribution networks,
negotiation of power purchase agreements (PPAs) and purchasing fuels at optimal costs. In the long term, if the
forecasts were too low or high, it could cause a number of adverse events, leading electricity companies in the
generation deficit or complex financial problems due to excessive investment in generating facilities that are not fully
utilized. This paper presents the results of the forecast energy demand, electricity consumption and estimation for active
power of Bauchi metropolis, using the model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED). Modeling of base year is done on
the basis of available statistical data and trends in individual sectors. Results were compared with forecasts that were
prepared using other methods.